VNPredictVietnam macroeconomic data and forecasts

Vietnam Manufacturing Production YoY YTD

Output & Demand · Monthly series · VNMPRYY

Latest, September 2026

12.4%

+0.59pp from August 2026

Recent history

The 24 most recent observations, newest first.
PeriodValue
September 202612.4%
August 202611.8%
July 202611.5%
June 202610.9%
May 202610.5%
April 202610.5%
March 202610.9%
February 202612.4%
January 202623.6%
December 202510.6%
November 202510.5%
October 202510.4%
September 202510.3%
August 202510.1%
July 202510.1%
June 202510.5%
May 202510.7%
April 202510.7%
March 202510.6%
February 202510.1%
January 20250.5%
December 20249.0%
November 20248.9%
October 20248.7%

Forecast

Forecast for September 2027: 9.5%, with an 80% interval of 4.4% to 16.3%.

Forecast path with the 80% interval.
PeriodForecast80% low80% high
October 202611.1%9.4%13.7%
November 202610.9%9.0%13.5%
December 202610.6%8.3%13.6%
January 202710.5%7.8%14.4%
February 202710.5%7.0%16.5%
March 202710.3%6.7%16.1%
April 202710.1%5.7%16.2%
May 202710.0%4.3%19.1%
June 20279.9%2.9%20.7%
July 20279.7%4.9%17.1%
August 20279.6%4.9%16.3%
September 20279.5%4.4%16.3%

Model: AR(1) + Chronos-2 blend. Forecast generated 2026-10-24.

Accuracy: grade good, MASE 0.83 and 80% interval coverage 77% over 12 cross-validation windows. MASE compares forecast errors with carrying the last observed value forward; below 1 means the forecast beat it.

Commentary

Manufacturing production accelerated from 10.45% year-on-year in April 2026 to a peak of 12.44% in September, but forecasts show a clear reversal beginning in October with growth dropping to 11.16% YoY and then gradually decelerating to 9.54% by September 2027. This trajectory marks a shift from accelerating expansion to a deceleration phase, with monthly declines averaging 0.2–0.3 percentage points. The magnitude of the slowdown is nearly 3 percentage points over the next year, indicating normalization after a period of frontloaded demand. The pace of the downshift suggests modest easing rather than a sharp contraction. By mid-2027, growth stabilizes just below 10%, reflecting a return toward longer‐term trend rates. This pattern implies that the manufacturing cycle in Vietnam is cooling but remaining in positive territory. This deceleration reflects waning frontloaded export orders after the expiration of the additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in July 2026 and rising global policy rates that weigh on external demand and funding costs . Slower global electronics demand, particularly for smartphones and semiconductors amid China’s technology cycle cooling, reduces orders for Vietnam’s assembly plants . Domestic infrastructure constraints, notably power supply strains driven by soaring data center and AI-related demand, also cap manufacturing utilization even as new high-tech projects ramp up . Continued policy support through the 2026–35 Supporting Industry Development Programme aims to increase local content in electronics, but the shift to higher-value production takes time, moderating short-term growth .

AI-generated commentary on the cached forecast, 2026-10-19.

Source

Data: ECONOMICS feed via TradingView.

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