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VNPredict

Vietnamese Macroeconomic Intelligence

Vietnam Macro Monthly

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VNPredict · vnpredict.tech · Vietnamese macroeconomic intelligence

Macro outlook

Macroeconomic summary

Indicator	Prior year	Latest	YTD	YoY %

Macro charts

Registered (excl. share purchases) vs disbursed FDI, cumulative YTD (USD bn)

CPI inflation: YoY (left axis) and MoM (right axis), %

Indicator scorecard

Indicator	Latest	Period	12m outlook	Grade	MASE

Methodology and attribution

Forecasts: chronos-2, a time-series foundation model served by TimeCopilot, for ten indicators. USD/VND uses a local robust-drift model (a Huber M-estimator of trailing monthly log-returns), which beats both the foundation model and a flat-carry random walk out-of-sample for this managed peg.

Accuracy: rolling-origin cross-validation. MASE is scaled against a horizon-matched random-walk baseline over the same windows, so a MASE below 1 genuinely means the model beats carrying the last value forward. Grades: good (MASE below 0.85), moderate (below 1.1), poor (above).

Intervals: 80% bands from the forecast producer; USD/VND uses a conformally calibrated empirical quantile band (asymmetric by design, reflecting depreciation drift).

Commentary: generated with live web search at forecast time and cached; refreshed on a 14-day cycle together with the data.

Data: monthly official series via TradingView.

This report is an auto-assembled first draft for research workflows. It is not investment advice.

VNPredict · vnpredict.tech